Technology Intelligence · AI · Semiconductors · Quantum

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The intelligence available to strategy leaders is either expensive and backward-looking, too generic to act on, or too raw to trust. Frontier Watch is the gap between those worlds — professional-grade foresight on frontier technologies: evidence-backed, forward-looking, and self-serve.

We don't summarize the news. We publish opinionated analysis with a public track record — and update it when the evidence changes.

Every signal we publish carries four things. No vague trends, no roundups.

Specificity

A concrete technology, company, or market shift — not a theme.

Evidence

Two or more independent sources; primary research and filings first.

Forward trajectory

Where this goes over 6–24 months, not what happened last week.

Strategic implication

A direct answer to so what? for a strategy leader.

From the archive · Published May 2026

AI INFRASTRUCTURE Active

4/5 · 12–24 mo

AI lock-in has moved from the model layer to the orchestration stack — and strategy teams aren't in the room.

GPT-4-class capability is now commodity for most enterprise workloads. Strategic value has migrated to three layers simultaneously — cloud infrastructure, data platforms, and workflow orchestration — where four vendor camps are forming and switching costs compound across layers.

Strategic implication Enterprises making these three decisions independently, business unit by business unit, are accumulating lock-in from multiple vendors at once — with no unified governance model and compounding migration cost. The architecture decisions that determine the next decade of AI flexibility are being made now, before strategy teams enter the conversation.

The archive is the proof. Early is when it compounds.

Every signal joins a public track record — confirmed, revised, or invalidated, recorded transparently. You can't catch up on six months of forward-looking analysis in a day.

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